ISTAT: Italy's Foreign Trade in February 2026

Italy's Foreign Trade in February 2026: exports, surplus, and what has changed

The Italian economy remains resilient in a complex global scenario. The latest foreign trade data for February 2026 show a picture of contrasts: the trade surplus is growing, but exports face challenges—especially within the European Union.

For Brazilians who hold or are seeking Italian citizenship, as well as for entrepreneurs and investors, understanding these numbers helps identify where the opportunities lie, which sectors are heating up, and how Italy is positioned in the international market.

1. General Overview of February 2026

Analyzing Italian foreign trade requires attention to different metrics. The monthly comparison (February vs. January 2026) points to a recovery in activity, while the annual comparison (February 2026 vs. February 2025) shows a more moderate scenario.

In February, compared to the previous month, exports grew by 2.6% and imports by 3.5%. This movement indicates a reactivation of industry after the winter, driven mainly by sales to markets outside the European Union (+5.1%).

In the annual comparison, however, exports fell by 0.2% in value and 2.2% in volume. Italy sold a smaller quantity but managed to maintain relatively higher prices. This ability to sustain the value of "Made in Italy" products is a sign of competitive strength.

The major highlight of the month was the trade surplus of €4.944 billion, up from €4.444 billion in February 2025. The main reason was not an export boom, but rather a sharp drop in import costs—especially energy. The energy balance deficit fell from nearly €5 billion to €3.466 billion, a significant relief. Excluding energy, the trade balance would be a robust surplus of €8.409 billion.

2. Two Speeds: European Union vs. Rest of the World

February data show a clear divide in the performance of Italian exports. Trade with European Union partners is stagnant, while sales to countries outside the bloc (Extra-EU) are advancing.

Exports to the EU fell by 2.9% compared to February 2025. The main factor is the economic slowdown in Germany, Italy's largest trading partner. The crisis in the German automotive sector, for example, directly affects the Italian supplier chain.

In contrast, exports to non-EU countries grew by approximately 3.0% year-on-year. This vitality reveals the ability of Italian companies to seek new partners during a time of European weakness. It is simultaneously a warning sign and an opportunity: while neighboring markets face difficulties, global expansion opens new fronts.

3. Sectors in Focus: Winners and Losers

The performance of Italian exports is not uniform. Some sectors stood out positively; others suffered sharp declines.

The main protagonist was the base metals and metal products sector, with a 30.7% increase in annual exports—driven by global demand for infrastructure, energy transition, and defense equipment. Another solid sector was pharmaceutical, chemical-medicinal, and botanical products (+3.0%), which is resilient and benefited from demand in the United States.

On the negative side, the largest drop came from transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles), with a 22.1% decline—a figure heavily distorted by a specific statistical effect, as we will see below. Other declining sectors included sporting goods, jewelry, and toys (-12.1%) and coke and refined petroleum products (-18.2%), reflecting the drop in energy prices.

4. New Partners, Old Challenges

Italy's trade map is transforming. Historical dependence on Germany is being counterbalanced by the growth of new axes: Switzerland, the United States, and OPEC countries.

Germany leads the declines, with a 15.4% contraction in purchases of Italian products. Other European markets also receded: Spain (-15.3%) and the United Kingdom (-13.5%).

The big positive surprise was Switzerland, with a 33.2% increase in imports from Italy, driven by demand for metals and base products. The United States confirmed its strength as a strategic partner (+8.0%), mainly in pharmaceuticals. OPEC countries also advanced (+14.5%), using oil revenues to invest in machinery and infrastructure.

5. The "Cantieristica" Effect: Understanding the Anomaly

To correctly read the February data, one must understand the so-called effetto cantieristica navale (shipbuilding effect). The sale of large vessels—cruise ships or military vessels—is a very high-value business that occurs sporadically.

When a sale worth billions of euros is recorded in a specific month, it inflates the export statistics for that period. If, in the same month of the following year, there is no equivalent sale, the annual comparison shows a drastic drop—even if the rest of the industry is healthy.

This is exactly what happened. February 2025 saw a large volume of naval exports; February 2026 did not. This absence was the main cause of the 22.1% drop in "transport equipment" and significantly influenced the overall result.

ISTAT itself clarifies: excluding the shipbuilding effect, total Italian exports would have grown by +0.9% instead of falling by -0.2%. The drop in exports to Germany, which looks alarming at -15.4%, would have been only -0.7% without this factor. The trade relationship between the two countries remains much more solid than the raw numbers suggest.

6. What This Means for You

For Brazilians with business plans, investments, or those considering living in Italy, these data serve as a strategic guide.

Firstly, they indicate where the demand is. The strength of metallurgy, machinery, and pharmaceuticals points to active areas. For Brazilian agribusiness, the opportunity remains open to supply raw materials to the powerful Italian food industry, one of the pillars of "Made in Italy."

Secondly, for those who already have or are seeking Italian citizenship, the advantages are concrete. Having a European passport or setting up a company in Italy (such as an S.r.l. — Società a Responsabilidade Limitata) opens the doors to the European single market, facilitates access to EU credit, and offers legal certainty.

This allows Brazilian entrepreneurs to overcome Mercosur limitations and operate from a stable, globally connected platform. Italy's ability to find new markets outside a stagnant Europe shows that having a base in the country is a strategic asset.

At Studio Cidadania, we monitor not only the citizenship recognition process but also the economic landscape our clients will encounter in Italy. To turn your plan into reality, count on our specialized services.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Italy's trade surplus increase if exports barely grew?

The surplus grew because of a sharp drop in the cost of imports, especially energy. Italy spent €1.5 billion less on energy imports in February 2026 than in the previous year. This saving boosted the positive trade balance.

Is the drop in sales to Germany worrying?

The -15.4% figure is misleading. Most of the drop is due to the statistical anomaly of shipbuilding. Excluding this effect, the contraction would be only -0.7%. The trade relationship remains strong, but Italy has been actively diversifying its partners.

What is the "cantieristica effect" and why does it matter?

It is the statistical distortion caused by the one-off, high-value sale of ships. Since these sales do not happen every month, annual comparisons can appear very positive or negative. Identifying this effect helps understand the real trend—which, in February 2026, was more positive than the headline figure suggests.

Which sectors offer the best opportunities in Italy today?

Data show strength in base metals and metallurgical products (+30.7%) and the pharmaceutical sector (+3.0%). These are high-tech, high-value-added areas characteristic of Italian industry, representing good opportunities for partnerships and investment.

How can Brazilians take advantage of the Italian economic scenario?

In two ways. As an entrepreneur, one can export to booming sectors in Italy or import high-value Italian products. As an Italian citizen or resident, one can establish a company in Italy to access the entire European market without barriers, taking advantage of stability and EU development programs.