1. Summary: Key Figures for 2025
The latest figures from the INE (Instituto Nacional de Estatística) (February 2026) have just been released, and the scenario is a mix of hope and warning. On one hand, the Vital Statistics show that more babies were born in Portugal in 2025 than in recent years. On the other hand, the country still cannot stop the loss of its natural population, which continues at a pace that gives pause for thought.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Live births | 84,934 | 87,732 | +3.3% (+2,798) ✅ |
| Deaths | 119,027 | 122,332 | +2.8% (+3,305) ❌ |
| Natural balance | -33,732 | -34,244 | Worsening ❌ |
| Marriages | 36,633 | 37,702 | +2.9% (+1,069) ✅ |
| Infant deaths (<1 year) | 255 | 246 | -9 deaths ✅ |
📌 Quick math: In 2025, we had 87,732 births compared to 122,332 deaths. In practice, Portugal "shrank" by 34,244 people naturally. It is interesting to note that although births rose by 3.3%, deaths also accelerated, maintaining the negative balance that has accompanied us since 2009. How is this resolved? The answer seems to lie beyond borders.
2. Birth Rate: 87,732 Births in 2025
If there is a reason to celebrate in the 2025 data, it is this: the birth rate took a leap. There were 87,732 new Portuguese (or residents) coming into the world, an increase of 3.3% compared to the previous year. That is nearly 2,800 more babies crying in the country's maternity wards, which is no small feat!
Monthly Evolution of Births in 2025
Throughout the year, the number of live births was higher than in 2024 in almost every month, with the exception of January (-0.3%) and February (-4.0%). In December 2025, 7,421 babies were born — 389 more (+5.5%) than in December 2024.
| Period | Live Births | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| January 2025 | — | -0.3% |
| February 2025 | — | -4.0% |
| March to November 2025 | — | Positive in all months |
| December 2025 | 7,421 | +5.5% |
| Total 2025 | 87,732 | +3.3% |
| Total 2024 | 84,934 | — |
Context: Recovery After the Historical Low
To understand the scale of this increase, one must look at the long-term trend. Portugal recorded its historical low for births in 2022, with approximately 82,000 live births. Since then, there has been a gradual recovery:
- 2022: ~82,000 (historical low)
- 2023: ~85,700
- 2024: 84,934
- 2025: 87,732 (best result since 2021)
This recovery is driven, in part, by the growing contribution of mothers of foreign nationality. According to the INE, in 2024, one-third of births in Portugal were already from mothers of foreign birth — a trend that certainly continued or intensified in 2025, reflecting the strong migratory flow of recent years.
3. Mortality: 122,332 Deaths in 2025
In 2025, 122,332 deaths were recorded in Portugal (including 620 deaths of residents abroad), 3,305 more (+2.8%) than in 2024 (119,027). This increase in mortality, combined with the less significant increase in births in absolute terms, explains the worsening of the natural balance.
Age Profile of Mortality
| Age Group | Percentage of Deaths |
|---|---|
| 65 years and over | 87.0% |
| 80 years and over | 61.1% |
| Under 1 year (infant deaths) | 246 deaths (0.2%) |
The overwhelming majority of deaths occur at advanced ages: 87% of deaths are of people aged 65 or older, and over 61% are of people aged 80 or older. This reflects the accelerated aging of the Portuguese population — Portugal has one of the highest aging indexes in Europe, with 188.1 elderly people for every 100 young people (PORDATA, 2023).
Infant Mortality: A Positive Sign
A positive data point: the number of infant deaths (children under 1 year old) decreased from 255 in 2024 to 246 in 2025, a reduction of 9 deaths. Although the absolute numbers are small, the reduction in infant mortality is always a relevant indicator of the quality of the healthcare system.
4. Natural Balance: Portugal Loses 34,244 People
The natural balance (basically births minus deaths) says almost everything about the crisis Portugal is experiencing. In 2025, we closed the accounts with 34,244 fewer people. The problem is not just that the number is negative, but that it is getting "deeper" than last year's. It is a warning sign that cannot be ignored.
| Year | Live Births | Deaths | Natural Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~84,400 | ~124,000 | ~-39,600 |
| 2021 | ~86,100 | ~130,500 | ~-44,400 |
| 2022 | ~82,000 | ~124,000 | ~-42,000 |
| 2023 | ~85,700 | ~118,300 | ~-32,600 |
| 2024 | 84,934 | 119,027 | -33,732 |
| 2025 | 87,732 | 122,332 | -34,244 |
In December 2025, the monthly natural balance was -5,352 — one of the worst months of the year, significantly worse than the -3,878 recorded in December 2024. This is due to the usual increase in mortality during the winter months, combined with the seasonality of births.
⚠️ What it means in practice: Without considering immigration, Portugal loses the equivalent of the population of a city like Entroncamento or Oliveira de Azeméis every year, just through the difference between births and deaths. The only reason Portugal's total population is not decreasing is the positive migratory balance, which in 2023 reached a record +155,701 people.
5. Marriages: 37,702 Unions in 2025
In 2025, 37,702 marriages were celebrated in Portugal, 1,069 more (+2.9%) than in 2024 (36,633). The trend is one of gradual recovery after the drop caused by the pandemic.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total marriages | 36,633 | 37,702 | +2.9% |
| December | 2,244 | 2,264 | +0.9% |
Throughout 2025, the number of marriages recorded negative year-on-year variations in only four months (March, April, June, and August). The most significant positive variation occurred in January 2025 (+11.6%).
For Brazilians in Portugal, marriage is one of the paths to legal regularization and can facilitate processes for obtaining Portuguese citizenship after three years of marriage to a Portuguese citizen.
6. January 2026: The First Data of the Year
Preliminary data for January 2026 reveal a start to the year marked by high mortality:
| Indicator | January 2025 | January 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deaths | 12,272 | 13,405 | +9.2% (+1,133) |
| Infant deaths (<1 year) | 13 | 16 | +3 |
The 9.2% increase in deaths in January 2026 compared to the same month last year is significant. This seasonal peak is common — the winter months (December to February) consistently concentrate the highest mortality of the year, largely due to respiratory diseases, the flu, and cold snaps that disproportionately affect the elderly population.
Live birth and marriage data for January 2026 are not yet available in this highlight — they will be published in the next INE report, scheduled for March 13, 2026.
7. Historical Evolution: The Portuguese Demographic Crisis
Portugal's demographic crisis is not a recent phenomenon — it is a structural trend decades in the making. Since 2009, the country has recorded an uninterrupted negative natural balance, and the fertility rate has fallen well below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman).
Demographic Milestones
| Year | Event |
|---|---|
| 1960 | Portugal had ~8.9 million inhabitants and a birth rate of 24‰ |
| 1974 | Carnation Revolution — start of accelerated demographic transition |
| 1982 | Last year with more than 150,000 births |
| 2009 | First year with a negative natural balance |
| 2013 | Fewer than 83,000 births — the low point until then |
| 2022 | New historical low: ~82,000 births |
| 2024 | Population reaches record 10.75 million (Eurostat) — thanks to immigration |
| 2025 | Birth rate recovers to 87,732 births (+3.3%) |
Fertility Rate
Portugal has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe: about 1.4 children per woman (2023 data). The replacement level is 2.1 — meaning the native population is structurally shrinking. According to Eurostat, only Spain (1.16), Italy (1.20), and Malta (1.13) have lower rates in Southern Europe.
8. Immigration: The Solution to the Demographic Deficit?
With a natural balance of -34,244, the only reason Portugal's population is not decreasing is immigration. The OECD International Migration Outlook 2025 confirmed that Portugal had one of the highest immigration growths in Europe in recent years.
The Role of Immigration in the Numbers
| Indicator | Value (most recent) |
|---|---|
| Natural balance 2025 | -34,244 |
| Migratory balance 2023 | +155,701 |
| Resident population 2025 | ~10.75 million (record) |
| Foreign mothers (% live births) | ~33% (2024) |
These data reveal that without immigration, Portugal would lose more than 34,000 inhabitants per year just through the natural demographic effect. Immigration compensates for this deficit and, in fact, pushed the total population to a historical record in 2025.
Even more revealing: one-third of babies born in Portugal in 2024 had mothers of foreign birth. This means that the recovery of the birth rate itself (+3.3% in 2025) is intrinsically linked to immigration — immigrants, on average younger than the native population, have higher fertility rates.
📌 The full equation: Natural Balance (-34,244) + Migratory Balance (+155,701 in 2023) = Positive population growth. Without immigration, Portugal would enter a spiral of population decline with serious consequences for the sustainability of Social Security, the healthcare system, and the economy.
9. What This Means for Brazilians in Portugal
Brazilians are the largest foreign community in Portugal, with over 400,000 legal residents. These demographic data have direct implications:
Opportunities
- Favorable labor market: The aging population creates growing demand in sectors such as healthcare, elderly care, construction, and technology.
- Migration policies: The structural demographic deficit makes it politically unsustainable to restrict immigration in the medium term — Portugal needs immigrants to maintain its economy and public services.
- Contribution to the birth rate: With 33% of births coming from foreign mothers, immigrants are a fundamental part of the demographic solution.
- Citizenship: For Brazilians with Portuguese ancestry, Portuguese citizenship processes offer full access to the European market.
Challenges
- Pressure on public services: Population growth via immigration puts pressure on healthcare, education, and housing systems that are already under stress.
- Housing: Strong demand for rentals in Lisbon and Porto continues to drive up prices, especially affecting immigrant communities.
- Integration: Ensuring the effective integration of immigrants — especially second-generation ones — is crucial for immigration to be a sustainable solution.
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10. Frequently Asked Questions
How many babies were born in Portugal in 2025?
87,732 babies were born in Portugal in 2025, 2,798 more (+3.3%) than in 2024, according to official INE data.
How many people died in Portugal in 2025?
There were 122,332 deaths in 2025, an increase of 2.8% (+3,305) compared to 2024. The majority (87%) occurred in people aged 65 or older.
What is the natural balance and why is it negative?
The natural balance is the difference between births and deaths. In 2025, it was -34,244, meaning 34,244 more people died than were born. Portugal has had an uninterrupted negative natural balance since 2009.
Is Portugal's population decreasing?
No. Despite the negative natural balance, immigration more than compensates for the deficit. In 2023, the migratory balance was +155,701, and the total population reached a record of about 10.75 million in 2025.
How many marriages were there in Portugal in 2025?
37,702 marriages were celebrated in 2025, an increase of 2.9% compared to 2024.
What is the fertility rate in Portugal?
Approximately 1.4 children per woman (2023 data), one of the lowest in Europe and well below the replacement level of 2.1.
What percentage of births in Portugal come from foreign mothers?
In 2024, about 33% of births in Portugal were to mothers of foreign birth — a fundamental contribution to the recovery of the birth rate.
📚 Read Also
- Salaries in Portugal 2025: Gross Remuneration Rises 5.6% to Reach €1,694 — Official INE Data
- Tourism in Portugal 2025: 82 Million Overnight Stays and 7.2 Billion in Revenue
- Portugal's Airports Hit Record in 2025: 73.7 Million Passengers (+4.7%)
- Labour Cost in Portugal Rises 6.9% in Q4 2025: Services Skyrocket 9.7% — Official INE Data
Article updated in February 2026 with official data from the INE — Vital Statistics, Monthly Data (January 2026). Original INE publication: February 13, 2026. Complementary sources: PORDATA, Eurostat, OECD — International Migration Outlook 2025.
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